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☆ Take Five: Warming up this winter
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

1\BUCK UP, IT'S DECEMBERThe dollar is heading for its weakest monthly performance for a year, with a loss so far of 2.7%. On Thursday, China releases official manufacturing PMI data, which last month showed an unexpected contraction, killing momentum for an economic recovery. COP28 gets underway in Dubai and securing an agreement on how to tackle global warming and, crucially, how to pay for it looks as difficult as ever for the near 200 countries and institutions attending. Reuters Graphics5\THE ECB'S BALANCING ACTEuro zone inflation data on Nov. 30 may well confirm a trend of price rises moderating. Policymakers remain wary of any hopes for rate cuts spilling over into increased bank lending and household spending, renewing inflationary pressures.

Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Amanda Cooper, it's, Joshua Roberts, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Christine Lagarde, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vineet Sachdev, Prinz, Toby Chopra Organizations: BUCK, IT'S, Federal Reserve, Reuters, REUTERS, COP28, World Bank, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Dubai, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Washington , U.S, UAE

Prior to the February 2022 invasion, Chinese cars accounted for less than 10% of the Russian market. Russia has jumped from 11th place to become China's largest export market for cars, reaching a value of $9.4 billion in January-October, Chinese customs data showed. Overall, monthly car sales in Russia are now more than double what they were a year ago, Autostat data showed, while separate data from federal statistics service Rosstat showed car production was nearly three times higher in September year-on-year, underlining the sector's partial recovery. 'UNSTABLE, SHAKY' MARKETSanctions against Russia contributed to lower car production and sales most notably in 2022, but also after Moscow annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014. Meanwhile, the rouble's slide to 100 against the dollar this year has made imports more expensive, depressing purchases of Chinese cars.

Persons: PPK, Sergei Udalov, Udalov, Russia's, Natalia Zubarevich, Zubarevich, Gleb Stolyarov, Alexander Marrow, Zoey Zhang, Vineet Sachdev, Mike Collett, White, Mark Potter Organizations: Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Chery, Geely, HK, West shuns, Autostat, Russia, Western, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Moscow State University, Wages, Lada, Thomson Locations: MOSCOW, Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Soviet, Beijing, China, West shuns Russia, Western

☆ Big central banks hit pause, with rate cuts far off
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

On Oct. 23, Fed Chair Jay Powell said a strong economy and tight jobs market could warrant more rate rises. Interest rate futures show traders believe the BoE will not cut rates, now at their highest since 2008, until at least June 2024. "The Governing Council’s past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully into financing conditions," the ECB said, adding it would follow a "data-dependent" approach and future decisions would be based on incoming data. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere told parliament last week interest rates may have peaked. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics8) AUSTRALIAThe Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 4.1% for a fourth meeting in October.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Jay Powell, BoE, Jonas Gahr Stoere, Michele Bullock, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Yoruk Bahceli, Samuel Indyk, Chiara Elisei, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Riddhima, Sumanta Sen, Vineet, Amanda Cooper, Giles Elgood Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, UNITED, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, BRITAIN, Bank of Canada, BoC, ECB, Norges Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Washington, Japan, hawkish, dovish, NORWAY, SWEDEN Sweden, SWITZERLAND, Swiss, Gaza, JAPAN

☆ Take Five: Another curve ball for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The European Central Bank looks set to sit tight after a string of interest rate hikes, while there's a slew of U.S. earnings and Argentina's presidential election. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the central bank was still "quite some distance" from easing monetary policy. Canada's central bank, meeting on Wednesday, is tipped to leave rates steady as inflation eases. 2 economy, property turmoil threatens China's 5% growth target - even after a consensus-smashing 4.9% quarterly expansion. Milei, surprise victor in the August primary election, has pledged to dollarise the economy and get rid of the central bank.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Rodrigo Campos, Philip Lane, hasn't, Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, Vineet Sachdev, Sumanta Sen, Dhara Ranasinghe, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Hamas, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, General Motors, Merck, United Parcel Service, Investors, International Monetary, Massa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, London, Tokyo, New York, Israel, Palestinian, Russia, Ukraine, China, Beijing, ARGENTINA, Argentina, Pasir Kongkunakornkul

[1/4] Indonesian President Joko Widodo arrives at Beijing Capital International Airport to attend the Third Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, October 16, 2023. Ten years on, the most senior EU leader expected to attend the third Belt and Road (BRI) Summit this week is Hungary's populist Viktor Orban, who will join guests including Russia's Vladimir Putin and a minister of the Afghan Taliban. Other analysts say economic slowdown both in China and globally, and rising commodity prices, have also cast a pall over the initiative. Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization think tank, said the BRI had "greatly pushed forward global awareness about the infrastructure deficit". "It's not perfect, but it’s a process, and people are gradually realising it's so important: we need to build infrastructure.

Persons: Joko Widodo, Ken Ishii, Putin, Orban, Britain's, Viktor Orban, Russia's Vladimir Putin, Xi, Jinping, Matthew Erie, they've, Raffaello Pantucci, Ruby Osman, Tony Blair, Osman, Wang Huiyao, Wang, Joyce Zhou, Vineet Sachdev, Antoni Slodkowski, Don Durfee, Robert Birsel Organizations: Beijing Capital International Airport, Forum, REUTERS Acquire, Initiative, University of Oxford, Reuters, Washington, American Enterprise Institute, S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Tony, Tony Blair Institute for Global, Global Development Initiative, Monetary Fund, Sri, Center for, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Italy, Xi's, BEIJING, Western Europe, EU, Taiwan, United States, Ukraine, Erie, CHINA, America, Africa, Russia, Kazakhstan, Congo, Singapore, China's, Argentina, Sri Lanka, Zambia, Center for China

[1/4] Indonesian President Joko Widodo arrives at Beijing Capital International Airport to attend the Third Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, October 16, 2023. Ten years on, the most senior EU leader expected to attend the third Belt and Road (BRI) Summit this week is Hungary's populist Viktor Orban, who will join guests including Russia's Vladimir Putin and a minister of the Afghan Taliban. Such Western doubts have coincided with Xi's assertive leadership and a deterioration in ties over trade, human rights, COVID-19 and Taiwan. Other analysts say economic slowdown both in China and globally, and rising commodity prices, have also cast a pall over the initiative. "It's not perfect, but it’s a process, and people are gradually realising it's so important: we need to build infrastructure.

☆ Take Five: War and peace of mind
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August as a surge in gasoline prices boosted receipts at service stations. Bar chart with data from LSEG I/B/E/S show the projected year-over-year growth in Q3 2023 earnings of S&P 500 industries. There have been reports the government is looking to increase its budget deficit to meet this year's 5% growth target. That said, inflation is still over three times the BoE's 2% target and growth isn't exactly stellar.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, Goldman Sachs, Johnson, Philip Morris, It's, Banks, Amundi, BoE, it's, Sumanta Sen, Prinz Magtulis, Vineet, Pasit, Jayaram, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Hamas, Bank of America, Johnson, Netflix, Philip Morris International, Investors, HK, Law, Justice, Reuters, The Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Palestinian, China, Britain, Tokyo, New York, London, LSEG, Beijing, Europe's, Brussels, Europe

☆ Take Five: Volatile start to busy week
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 9 (Reuters) - Financial markets have got off to a volatile start to the week, after Hamas militants launched an assault on Israel at the weekend, triggering violent conflict that left hundreds dead. A bond market rout last week and currency gyrations already had financial markets on edge ahead of U.S. inflation numbers and the start of earnings season. Here's your week ahead in markets from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rachel Savage in Johannesburg, and Naomi Rovnick and Dhara Ranasinghe in London. Amid these tensions, the IMF and World Bank are trying to boost their lending.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, gyrations, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Rachel Savage, Naomi Rovnick, Wells, LSEG IBES, Rishi Sunak's, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Vineet, Karin Strohecker, Kim Coghill Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Financial, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Labour, JPMorgan, Citigroup, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, UnitedHealth, Reuters, LABOUR, Conservative, Labour Party, MOROCCO Finance, Monetary Fund, U.S, Bretton Woods, IMF, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Tokyo, New York, Johannesburg, London, Central, Morrocan, Marrakech, China

The ramifications for global markets are significant, with Washington and Beijing's determination to loosen dependence on each other fraying long-established supply chains. Many central banks target 2% inflation; market gauges of traders' long-term U.S. and European inflation expectations are running higher , . Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at the Amundi Investment Institute, said Sino-U.S. tensions, provide a "new lens" through which to analyse emerging markets' growth prospects. But the performance of big U.S. tech stocks and global share indices are vulnerable to signs of Chinese retaliation. With China underperforming global stocks, investors are split on how to approach this market.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, Wouter Sturkenboom, Laura Alfaro, Anna Rosenberg, Christopher Rossbach, J, Stern, Carole Madjo, Wendy Liu, Baird, Patrick Spencer, Naomi Rovnick, Kripa Jayaram, Riddhima, Vineet, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Reuters, Research, Harvard Business, Amundi Investment Institute, INDIA RUSH, Barclays reckons, EU, Apple, China, Barclays, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: West, China, Washington, Western, Germany, Northern, Europe, FRIENDSHORING Washington, Vietnam, Mexico, Mongolia, Philippines, Sino, U.S, India, Beijing, COVID, CHINA

"The situation is already very bad for dollar-based funds to invest in China's tech sector. There isn't much room for things to get worse," said Beijing-based China Growth Capital partner Wayne Shiong. Biden's move will likely make China-focussed venture capital firms feel more urgency to raise yuan funds from Chinese investors, he said. In response to Biden's executive order, China's commerce ministry said it was "gravely concerned" and reserved the right to take countermeasures. But the executive order is barely going to do anything, and China escalating would risk turning a molehill into a mountain."

Persons: Florence Lo, Joe Biden's, Donald Trump, Weiheng Chen, Wilson Sonsini, Biden, Chen, Wayne Shiong, Biden's, Yuan, Pan, Trump, Derek Scissors, Kane Wu, Michael Martina, Roxanne Liu, Ziyi Tang, Yantoultra, Sumeet Chatterjee, William Mallard Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, China Growth Capital, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, TECH, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Analysts, American Enterprise Institute, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, HONG KONG, WASHINGTON, Beijing, Washington, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Bengaluru

June retail inflation rose to 4.81%, higher than both the revised 4.31% for the previous month and the 4.58% expected in a Reuters poll of 55 economists. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket, rose to 4.49% against a revised 2.96% in May. Reuters GraphicsErratic and incessant rainfall in northern India could push vegetable prices higher in the coming months. Prices of vegetables will remain high in July and may push retail inflation to an "uncomfortable 5.3%-5.5%" this month, Nayar added. "We expect the monetary policy committee to see through the short-term spike in food inflation and remain on prolonged pause," said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital.

Persons: Aditi Nayar, Nayar, Garima Kapoor, Aftab Ahmed, Vineet, Christina Fincher, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: NEW DELHI, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, Elara, Thomson Locations: India

SYDNEY/SINGAPORE, June 20 (Reuters) - Asia's dealmakers are counting on a pause in rate hikes globally and an economic rebound in China to rekindle activity in the region's equity capital markets, after volumes in the first half of the year sank to their lowest in four years. First-half Asia Pacific equity capital markets volumes dropped 16% to $117.2 billion from the same period in 2022, including a 34% drop in initial public offerings (IPOs) to $34.3 billion, Refinitiv data showed. "For investor sentiment to return for IPOs we need to see a more stable interest rate environment in the U.S., more economic stimulus from China and an improving geopolitical backdrop," said Cathy Zhang, head of Asia Pacific equity capital markets at Morgan Stanley. "We are hoping to see more IPO activity in the second half and starting to see some green shoots in the U.S. and Europe," said Udhay Furtado, Citigroup's co-head of Asia equity capital markets. As bankers scan their pipeline of IPO candidates for the second half, larger transactions in the region are being favoured to help kick-start activity.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Cathy Zhang, Morgan Stanley, Udhay Furtado, Citigroup's, Sunil Dhupelia, JPMorgan's, China's JD.com, Hulu Energi's, Edmund Leong, Scott Murdoch, Yantoultra, Vineet, Sonali Paul Organizations: Asia, Morgan, IPOs, STAR, Shenzhen's, Reuters, JD Industrial, JD, Alibaba, HK, Bankers, Group Investment Banking, UOB, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, SINGAPORE, China, Asia Pacific, U.S, York, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Europe, Asia, Japan, IPOS, Southeast Asia, Amman, Sydney, Singapore, Bangalore

☆ Take Five: How bad is it?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China and Britain release key economic data and officials from the Group of Seven nations talk climate goals. 1/ EARNINGS RECESSIONU.S. earnings season goes up a gear and the outlook is gloomy due to the regional banking crisis and the most aggressive monetary policy tightening in decades. Analysts expect Q1 S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from the year-ago period, Refinitiv I/B/E/S data as of April 7 showed. In a sign of which way the authorities want lending rates to head, smaller regional banks have already cut deposit rates. China GDP vs 1-year MLF rate4/ NO ALARMS, NO SURPRISESIt's a big week for UK data, with February jobs figures on Tuesday and March inflation numbers Wednesday.

☆ Take Five: An uneasy calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Kazuo Ueda takes over the helm at the Bank of Japan while U.S. bank earnings kick off and Switzerland's parliament debates the UBS-Credit Suisse tie up. 1/ BANKS' BOTTOM LINESThe uneasy calm that has settled over the U.S. banking sector after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will be tested as U.S. financials kick off their earnings season. S&P 500 earnings are predicted to fall 5.0%, I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv showed. Reuters Graphics5/ SPRING MEETINGSPolicymakers and investors head to Washington for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund Spring meetings starting on Monday. It will be the first meeting for Ajay Banga, U.S. nominee to run the World Bank and sole contender for the job.

Despite the improvement, British economic output remained 0.6% below its level of late 2019, the only G7 economy not to have recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics said Friday's figures showed high inflation had taken a slightly smaller toll than previously thought. But the picture could darken again if recent turmoil in the global banking sector leads to lenders reining in loans. BUSINESS INVESTMENT FALLSThe data suggested businesses remained cautious. The ONS said increased foreign earnings by companies, particularly in the energy sector, helped narrow the deficit.

☆ Take Five: Everything Everywhere All at Once
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Lender Credit Suisse will likely dominate a Swiss National Bank meeting and the Bank of England might place its inflation fight on hold. Some predict Credit Suisse could merge with peer UBS to rebuild Switzerland's reputation as a finance safe haven. Credit Suisse will also take centre stage when the SNB meets on Thursday. The Bank of England could be on the verge of wrapping up a 17-month campaign of raising rates to combat inflation. Labour market pressures - including wage inflation - are starting to soften.

☆ Take Five: The truth about inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

That puts Tuesday's U.S. inflation data on the must-watch list. 1/ INFLATION BETSurprisingly strong January U.S. jobs data forced markets to rethink the view that interest rates will peak soon. Now, Tuesday's latest inflation figure is the next big test for where the Federal Reserve takes rates in coming months. Stock markets are confident that the Fed can bring down inflation without triggering a sharp growth slowdown. January's inflation report on Wednesday could show double-digit price rises, meaning no respite yet on the interest-rate front.

☆ Take Five: The Bottom Line
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia and India's central banks are navigating the shifting sands of data and markets are digesting what the world's top central banks have to offer. The question is what impact this will have on bonds and stocks markets after a stellar January? Reuters Graphics4/ RUN RALLY, RUNIt was a stellar start to 2023 for markets - stocks and government bonds enjoyed one of the best Januaries on record, fuelled by optimism that the worst is over. That's not good for a central bank, nor is the idea that their communication is ineffective. Policy rate hikes and cuts by central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies.

Japan's 10-year bond yield, trading at 0.4%, fell on Wednesday but is not far off its highest levels since 2015. Total holdings of foreign bonds by Japanese institutional investors, excluding Japan's $1 trillion reserve portfolio, reached $3 trillion at their peak. GOING HOMEThe implications of higher inflation and a possible end to ultra-low rates are not lost on Japanese investors. Still, anticipating a shift, Japanese investors sold a net 2.1 trillion yen ($15.94 billion) of foreign bonds in December, marking a fourth straight month of selling. According to Nomura, Japanese investors have been far more active buyers of global and overseas equities than domestic stocks in the last decade.

☆ Take Five: Much to say in Tokyo (and Davos)
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. earnings and retail sales numbers, a slew of China data and inflation readings elsewhere mean there's plenty to mull over. Recent data showed Tokyo inflation at double the central bank's target. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ HOPE AND FEARU.S. retail sales data and more earnings reports are on tap. Before then comes December's data deluge, with industrial output (CNIO=ECI), retail sales (CNRSL=ECI) and Q4 economic growth data (CNGDP=ECI) lining up to be ugly. Economists expect retail sales to have dropped 7.8% for a fourth straight monthly decline and for annual growth to finish up at a meagre 1.8%.

☆ Take Five: Welcome to 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - A potential shift by the world's most dovish major central bank, inflation pressures abating, a turn in the economic outlook and oil markets suffering their biggest tumble in decades: Welcome to 2023! 1/ EARNINGS AND INFLATIONThe week ahead brings a critical read into two key themes for Wall Street in 2023: the health of corporate profits and inflation. With crude oil volatility soaring, 2023 might be anything but plain sailing for producers and consumers alike. Barclays expects the UK economy to keep contracting until the end of the third quarter of 2023. It takes time for declines in market prices to filter through into household bills, but signs are positive for cash-strapped consumers and businesses.

Headline inflation slowed in November for the first time in 1-1/2 years, to 10%, raising hopes that sky-high price growth has passed. ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely be careful about calling a peak after last year's "big mistake" of insisting surging prices were "transitory," said Pictet's Ducrozet. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reckons wages would be a "primary driver" of price inflation even after energy price shocks fade. Closely-watched business activity data points to a mild recession and latest forecasts should show how the ECB views the coming slowdown. Lane believes record price growth will start to subside next year.

☆ Take Five: Ready for that Santa rally?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/FRANC DISCUSSIONCredit Suisse executives may need to sit down for an honest chat about whether the bank's latest strategic plan is enough to rally investors. And with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England meeting in coming weeks, the drama isn't over. For some, the notion of peak rates, peak inflation and China's reopening is reason enough for cheer. After months of pain inflicted by high inflation and aggressive rate increases, perhaps it's time to bring on the Santa rally. That wouldn't necessarily cut short a rally in Aussie dollar, which recently has been driven more by China's re-opening hopes and a retreating greenback than the RBA.

☆ Take Five: Everything to play for
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Markets are hopeful the Federal Reserve will soon slow the pace of its aggressive rate hikes. The U.S. economy likely created 200,000 new jobs, a Reuters poll of economists forecasts found, in what would be the smallest gain since December 2020. Manufacturing indicators, mainly PMIs, due next week might attest to the weakness already seen across the economy. Inflation in the euro zone was 10.6% in October, more than five times the European Central Bank's 2% target. Indeed, the Fed may be getting ready to slow the pace of its rate hikes, but the ECB is not there yet.

☆ Take Five: A UK budget and trouble in crypto land
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The long-awaited UK fiscal plan is (almost) here and after the ructions unleashed by September's mini-budget, markets are paying close attention. UK markets have recouped most of the maxi-losses from the mini-budget, but the outlook is grim. Reuters Graphics2/ CRYPTO CHAOSThe crypto world has been thrown into fresh chaos by a meltdown at FTX. Big banks too are starting to pare back staffing levels. September data showed a measure of underlying retail sales rising thanks to strong wage gains and savings, even as the broader number came in flat.

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